If the 2026 midterms were held today, polls suggest that Democrats would be the favorites to retake the Senate.
Indeed, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Democratic Senate candidates lead in North Carolina (+8%), Minnesota (+4%), Texas (+3%), Ohio (+3%), as well as Michigan, Maine, and Alaska (+2% each).
Moreover, with President Trump’s approval rating hovering just below 40%, it’s legitimate to ask whether his sagging approval numbers will drag down Republican candidates across the country.
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Needing to flip four seats — assuming no GOP pickups in Michigan, Minnesota, or Georgia — the Senate is well within striking distance for Democrats, according to the data.
That being said, the midterms are not today, and roughly two months until Election Day is a considerable amount of time.
In that same vein, the Democratic candidates in these races have a number of personal and party-wide vulnerabilities, so it is by no means clear that what may currently look possible — or even probable — will come to fruition.
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I say this for a number of reasons.
First, outside of North Carolina and Texas, in each state, the Democrats’ polling advantages are well within the margin of error.
Voters tend to turn their attention to midterms only after the summer ends, so it is entirely conceivable that these numbers reflect high-frequency voters, which often benefits Democrats.
Second, and perhaps more important, frustration with the Trump administration will only get Democrats so far — candidate quality remains a deciding factor for many moderates and swing voters.
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The success of candidates affiliated with, or members of, the Democratic Socialists of America has opened a lane for Republicans to paint all Democrats as out-of-touch, far-left extremists.
In 2024, then-candidate Donald Trump effectively painted former Vice President Kamala Harris as too far left on hot-button social issues, and Democrats have only moved further left since.
On this, races in Texas, Michigan, and Maine in particular will be crucial to watch and may represent Republicans’ best hope of maintaining control of the upper chamber.
As I’ve noted previously in these pages, the Democrats in those races — James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed, and Troy Jackson, respectively — are so far to the political left that it’s easy to see how voters could be turned off.
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Whether it’s Talarico’s past support for transgender women competing against biological girls in sports, El-Sayed’s anti-American statements, his rabid anti-Israel positions, his association with far-left Twitch influencer Hasan Piker, or Jackson’s history of flip-flopping and other controversies, these are flawed candidates.
To that end, as these campaigns kick off in earnest, Republicans are all but certain to remind voters of their opponents’ far-left progressive positions on a number of issues.
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Even when the Democrat is not a progressive, such as in Alaska, where Mary Peltola is a moderate Blue Dog Democrat, Republicans may be able to tie all Democrats to the DSA.
That’s been Republican Dan Sullivan’s strategy, framing a vote for Peltola as a vote for a Senate hostile to the state’s energy sector — a vital local issue — despite Peltola’s record of supporting drilling.
Third, on a basic level, Democrats’ task is made more difficult by needing to secure 51 seats given Vice President JD Vance’s tiebreaking vote and the possibility that Sen. John Fetterman could switch parties.
He has repeatedly denied any intention of doing so, though his video appearance at the GOP convention in Dallas on Wednesday did nothing to quell rumors or speculation.
Finally, Republicans have a sizable cash advantage. In recent filings, the Republican National Committee reported $128.5 million in cash on hand, versus $16.3 million for the DNC.
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Additionally, across the three major Republican committees and two affiliated super PACs, Republicans reported $657 million — nearly double the $334 million held by comparable Democratic groups.
President Trump’s super PAC alone has more than $400 million.
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Ultimately, Democrats have a genuine chance to retake the Senate, a remarkable achievement just two years after their 2024 across-the-board defeat.
The 2026 Senate map had been considered favorable to Republicans, but, according to the polls, it’s Democrats who have the momentum. That Democratic candidates would be leading in Senate races in states like Alaska and Texas would have been inconceivable not long ago.
However, the midterms are by no means a foregone conclusion, and a polling lead two months before Election Day is not the same as winning the election.
Democrats’ razor-thin margins in the majority of the states they need, lingering concerns over candidate quality and the DSA’s impact, as well as Republicans’ massive financial advantage, mean it is by no means clear that the Senate will flip.
Carly Cooperman is CEO of Schoen Cooperman Research.
